Brexit: Onward and Upward or Down and Out
(jjohnsit and Scizor99 have blogs on this story. My knowledge of EU banking, and British law are very limited. This is my first blog, please let me know if it could be improved or needs corrections)
I was not really expecting the referendum would win the vote. I’ll leave the analysis to the professional experts. This is what I could find to help me wade through the media fog of breathless “latest new thing” reporting.
David Cameron, PM, is history. Mum’s the word from Buckingham Palace but I’m sure they are considering all options to maintain the monarchy and their wealth. For those with heavy investments in gold, short sellers and a whole plethora of other investment options, this may bring huge short term profits.
At this point, it is unclear who are “the winners and losers”. There may be many more twists and turns, parliamentary issues to resolve. David Allen Green points out there is a pesky legal detail from Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
From the Financial Times: Free Market support, Glenn Greenwald and Assange connection, British version of WSJ, liberal lawyer David Allen Green, politics trumps law
http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-...
Can the United Kingdom government legally disregard a vote for Brexit?
David Allen Green Jun 14
….snip
What happens next in the event of a vote to leave is therefore a matter of politics not law. It will come down to what is politically expedient and practicable. The UK government could seek to ignore such a vote; to explain it away and characterise it in terms that it has no credibility or binding effect (low turnout may be such an excuse). Or they could say it is now a matter for parliament, and then endeavour to win the parliamentary vote. Or ministers could try to re-negotiate another deal and put that to another referendum. There is, after all, a tradition of EU member states repeating referendums on EU-related matters until voters eventually vote the “right” way.What matters in law is when and whether the government invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This is the significant “red button”. Once the Article 50 process is commenced then Brexit does become a matter of law, and quite an urgent one. It would appear this process is (and is intended to be) irreversible and irrevocable once it starts. But invoking Article 50 is a legally distinct step from the referendum result — it is not an obligation.
Article 50 in full contains the following provisions:
….snip
France 24, daily news broadcast on LINK and FSTV in the US, speculates on the domino effect for other members of the EU.
http://www.france24.com/en/20160620-brexit-referendum-outcome-britain-eu...
…snip
More members may leave
“In deciding its stance towards the negotiation of Brexit terms, the EU would be torn between the politics of avoiding a ‘contagion effect’ and the economic imperative of a quick and favourable deal for Britain,” according to experts Oliver Patel and Christina Reh, writing in “Brexit: The Consequences for the EU’s Political System”.If the UK leaves there is a real risk of other countries also seeking to reconsider their EU membership. Bale cites countries with already high rates of euroscepticism, like the Scandinavian nations. And with a new wave of populism now sweeping across Europe, there could be domestic pressure for even a longtime EU advocate like France to leave the union.
To avoid a domino effect, it is likely that the EU will be particularly tough on the UK to dissuade other countries from leaving.
“The EU is worried about fragmenting, so it doesn’t want to be seen as giving the UK an easy ride,” Bale said. “Without being ridiculously vengeful, they will not make it easy for the UK.”Leading countries may also try to pull the rest of the EU closer together. “Immediately after a vote to leave, Germany and France would probably push for deeper Eurozone integration, as a display of unity,” wrote Patel and Reh in their report.
…snip
Reuters is opining for the MSM. Will any major network do any investigative reporting before becoming parrots?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0Z902K
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:30am EDT
Britain votes to leave EU, Cameron quits, markets plummet
LONDON | BY GUY FAULCONBRIDGE AND KATE HOLTONBritain has voted to leave the European Union, forcing the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and dealing the biggest blow to the European project of greater unity since World War Two.
Global financial markets plunged on Friday as results from a referendum showed a near 52-48 percent split for leaving a bloc it joined more than 40 years ago.The pound fell as much as 10 percent against the dollar to levels last seen in 1985, on fears the decision could hit investment in the world's fifth-largest economy, threaten London's role as a global financial capital and usher in months of political uncertainty.
World stocks headed for one of the biggest slumps on record, and billions of dollars were wiped off the value of European companies. Britain's big banks took a $130 billion battering, with Lloyds and Barclays falling as much as 30 percent.
….snip
Start your day with Brexit?
Comments
with the caveat that
I'm no expert on EU relations, but it seems to me that, just from the standpoint of breaking the back of "corporate hegemony", and its desire to essentially take over the world, a "brexit" is a good thing, as would be a "domino effect" of other countries bailing on it. I've always thought of the EU as sort of a way to consolidate power in western Europe, thus making it easier to buy off.
Not to mention, they really weren't very "united" over it, apparently. Scotland's reaction shocks me, but they get another referendum over it. Interesting times...
I would prefer
anti-establishment leftists be elected to the EU and demand reform or exit. A domino effect with referenda could stand to only benefit the radical right and the mainstream media will likely continue to bury the left in all of this by screaming about racism.
Hollande, President of France was opposed to EU exit.
I think he, and many other political leaders of EU countries will go to plan B to stop this. The IMF will come down with both feet on the debt implications. The 99 percent suffering under austerity and debt will be punished regardless of the final outcome.
This is why I agree with Senator Sanders. We need an organized peoples' political movement. Just my opinion
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
How long would you be willing to wait
for that to happen? That's not what they got. Nationalist sentiments seem high, much like they are here. If something about it benefits the radical right, the first instinct is to think it's a bad thing. But at the same time, the EU has always seemed only a vehicle for consolidating power. Quite the dilemma, overall, and no doubt why it was so close a vote.
Interesting times indeed
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
How does it do anything about "corporate hegemony"?
Much less, "break its back"? Not seeing that, at all.
As I posted in my own essay, Gary Younge notes Britain will still be under the neoliberal system. Nothing has changed. The same economic system is in place. The same economic apartheid (capitalism) is there after brexit.
After the initial market crashes, global capitalism will reset and continue its Grow or Die imperatives.
No corporate controls have been foiled. Capitalism remains in total control. It's never needed to worry about borders in the first place, but people do.
There is in me an anarchy and frightful disorder. Creating makes me die a thousand deaths, because it means making order, and my entire being rebels against order. But without it I would die, scattered to the winds.
-- Albert Camus
Scotland
New referendum - Scotland, Independent, then joins the EU.
Interesting times indeed.
Clean off your bag pipes, or at least the tuner
Oops- posted in the wrong place.
Sorry about that...
"Sorry" is not necessary my friend skod
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
This was an advisory referendum
The exit process won't start until the British government invokes Article 50. Until then, the government can indeed pull a "Greece" on the referendum and ignore/override it. At this point it doesn't look likely, especially since the voter turnout was high (BBC said 70%).
A big question now is how long they will wait until they file an Article 50 exit ask. Some in the EU are saying 'do it fast' but others in the UK want to slow it down, wait till the Fall, perhaps new elections. UK progressives may want to delay
Glad to see Cameron out, but if he's replaced by Johnson and no new elections are called things may get worse.
BTW in my state (NY) advisory referenda are illegal. IOW it's illegal for the state to ask the people what action should be taken. NY can only hold permissive referenda: once the govt has made a decision, the people get to vote yes or no.
One of the original colonies made sure that only the elites can devise policy--put as much space as possible between the people and the legislation.
Thank you Eye
I have seen several comments that are in line with our thinking.
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
My rebel instincts incline me toward Bern It Down, but don't
know enough about the ins and outs here.
I do know believe the elephant in the room globally is the lethal effects of unbridled capitalism, from which most all else goes. Every time Bernie makes an economic point he ties it to Money In Politics, which he masterfully made the central issue of his campaign. Along with pointing out that "the business model of Wall St is fraud," he's making the case quite literally, in terms of how healthcare is run by insurance companies, that everyone in different degrees is drowning in student/consumer/medical/homewoner debt and all that accumulated wealth by the banks and monopoly corporations is used to cement the status quo of a government subject to chronic dysfunction and a revolving door of lobbyists - he's making the point that capitalism quite literally kills.
Don't know how much of this made it into the Brexit decision for folks, but people are desirous of real change from the status quo.
Anyway, Carne Ross is a very interesting former British diplomat living in NYC who wrote the excellent "The Leaderless Revolution," which presaged Occupy. His way of thinking is the more decentralized almost anarchist-style organizing, if you will, of society, the better off we are. Interestingly he appears opposed to Brexit. Found these on his Twitter feed:
If you don't know him, check this out (couldn't embed, sorry):
http://billmoyers.com/segment/carne-ross-on-being-agents-of-change/
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
At least the pig head
fucker is gone. Boris Johnson the new PM sounds like a nasty piece of work. Labour needs to step up start being a viable left counter to the UKIP RW faction. Here's a statement from a left wing group.
The New Labour Blairites want to use this to get Corbyn to step down.