Stein Polling Roundup, Mid-August 2016

For those who are attempting to keep tabs on the rise of Jill Stein, I've tried to congeal the latest polls over the past couple of weeks here.

Now, yes, everyone should understand that polling of third-party candidates is often an overestimate, since traditionally a Green Party candidate like Stein might poll at 2%-5% and then end up with only 0.35% of the vote (as was the case in 2012). But, this year may be different, partly because of the Sanders phenomenon, partly because the main party candidates are terrible, and partly because people are just increasingly getting fed up with the way things are. Maybe, this year, people will actually get up off the couch and vote for the third-party candidate they support! At least, we can hope.

The low-end goal for Stein is getting 5% of the national popular vote. This will automatically get the Green Party onto the ballot in certain states in future presidential elections, and will open up $20 million in federal funding for future presidential elections. These are both huge potential improvements for the Greens, and could launch them into more of a mainstream party.

The latest polls taken from the past couple of weeks (all were in August, except the California poll):

Alaska: 6% (Alaska Dispatch News)

California: 6% (PPIC--from mid-July)

Colorado: 7% (Quinnipiac), 6% (NBC News/WSJ/Marist) (this is up from 4% about a month earlier)

Michigan: 5% (Fox News)

New York: 6% (Siena), 4% (Gravis)

Texas: 2% (PPP)

Virginia: 5% (Quinnipiac), 5% (NBC News/WSJ/Marist), 3% (Washington Post)

Nationwide Under 30 Year Olds: 10% (Average of 5 polls--Marist, Pew, ABC News, YouGov, Washington Consult, range 8%-16%)

Note that except for Texas and California, all these show increasing percentages from July, where Stein's support in these states was generally in the 2%-3% range. So we are seeing increases in polling numbers.

If polls continue to increase for Stein (a big if), we may see a tipping point where she gets more attention. Stein has been hitting a lot of news shows in the past week.

Just food and data for thought.

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Thaumlord-Exelbirth's picture

The more people here from her, the more they will like her, and the more likely they will be to ditch the BS "lesser evil" mentality.

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two same parties, the more the numbers go up. People including me are getting really sick and tired of listening to all of them.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Hawkfish's picture

Why bother.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

elenacarlena's picture

her get to 15% in time to be included in the debates.

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